The Four Ideas That Explain America’s Democratic Crisis

Now that I’m an American living in Canada, something I hear all the time is some variation of, “What the hell is going on in the United States?” spoken with a tone of mixed bemusement and horror. The people I work with come from all over the world, and it’s the same message from everyone. The very short answer is “fascism”. However, people outside the U.S. can’t square the circle when it comes to understanding how the Americans they meet are generally friendly and helpful yet elected a government that revels in cruelty. The answer to why America is the way it is today lies in four central concepts: the “Chesterton’s fence” thought experiment, the Dunning-Krueger effect, Bonhoeffer’s theory of stupidity, and social dominance orientation (SDO).

The U.S. is diving deeper and deeper into a constitutional, political, economic, and military crisis, and it’s too much for most people to absorb. Understanding the root of these problems is critical to responding to them and the current regime, and hopefully, to finding a path toward future repair.

Chesterton’s Fence

This rule states that one should not remove any established system until you understand the purpose it serves. In 1929 novelist G.K. Chesterton wrote the following on politics and reform:

“In the matter of reforming things, as distinct from deforming them, there is one plain and simple principle; a principle which will probably be called a paradox. There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”

By understanding the “why” behind the “what,” we avoid situations where removing something leads to unexpected problems or negative outcomes. This is crucial for avoiding unintended consequences when making changes. Even if a system appears inefficient or outdated, there might be a hidden purpose or benefit that is not immediately obvious.

The modern MAGA and Trumpist movement refuse to do this. They make their decisions from the “gut” or on the fly, guided by common sense or Christian religious beliefs. If they don’t understand something, it needs to be eliminated; no further thought is required so long as the person regards themselves as intelligent or Christian.

For example, Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) claimed massive fraud at the Social Security Administration (SSA). This belief was caused by their misunderstanding of the system’s data. They assumed that the system was wrong, never considering it was their comprehension that was flawed. It never occurred to them to dig deeper to understand why they were seeing what they were seeing. Instead, they chose to kick down Chesterton’s metaphorical fence.

Musk and Trump believe that their great wealth is a sign of their intelligence and infallibility, despite all evidence to the contrary. This belief in their superiority leads them to assume that their decisions to kick down fences are, naturally, correct because no one could possibly be smarter than them or better at deciding what needs to be destroyed. In reality, it is more reflective of their sociopathy and amoral ability to exploit the system for personal gain.

Which leads us to the next fundamental concept for understanding American fascism: The Dunning-Kruger effect.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a phenomenon where people who don’t know much about a specific topic tend to overestimate their knowledge or skill in that area. Conversely, experts in that area may underestimate their competence, as they understand the true complexity of the topic or skill in question. This miscalibration arises from a lack of metacognitive skills, preventing individuals from accurately assessing their own limitations.

Ask a professor of astrophysics about degenerate matter stars, and they’ll respond, “Oh, geez, I specialize in black holes. Totally different. Ask Dr. Smith down the hall; he’s far more qualified to answer that.” On the other hand, ask Trump who he consults with on foreign policy and he replies, “I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things.”

Trump has filled the government with unqualified ignoramuses, surrounding himself with people who vastly overestimate their abilities because they believe their ideologies or wealth make them better than the experts. Pete Hegseth was never more than a major in the national guard, but assumes he is fit because he was a Christian warrior. Linda McMahon was a professional wrestling executive who now leads the Department of Education. The entire governmental health care apparatus is full of people who “did their own research”, drink raw milk, and reject the germ theory of disease and vaccines.

Trump, MAGA, and the swing voters who voted for Trump are generally ignorant of the facts. Polling data and research found that much of Trump’s support (and turnout) came from people who do not follow politics or the news. They instead voted based on “vibes”. This is precisely why so many people’s faces are getting eaten by leopards these days.

In a strange way, the United States is now a giant Dunning-Kruger pyramid. From top to bottom the system is now self-reinforcing. The majority of disinformation being put out by the government isn’t particularly plausible to people who are well informed and capable of research and critical thinking. To others, on the other hand, this firehose of falsehood makes them think the truth is seemingly unknowable. As a result, many uninformed voters are becoming even less informed as they no longer seek the truth.

With great stupidity comes great evil, and the consequences have already shown themselves to be dire.

Bonhoeffer’s Theory of Stupidity

Dietrich Bonhoeffer was a Lutheran pastor and theologian who opposed Hitler and the Nazis and spoke out against the killing of disabled people and the persecution of Jews. Bonhoeffer’s Theory of Stupidity posits that stupidity is more dangerous than evil, because it can be easily manipulated and exploited by evil forces. He argued that while evil is identifiable and can be resisted, stupidity is a force that actively resists reason and critical thinking, making it a powerful tool for those who seek to do harm.

Unsurprisingly, Bonhoeffer also had some thoughts on the relationship of stupidity, authoritarianism, and evil. Thanks to these he was hanged during the waning days of WWII, having spent the final two years of his life in prisons and concentration camps for his anti-Nazi views.

Bonhoeffer didn’t see stupidity as merely a passive lack of knowledge or intellect, but rather as an active force, a willful refusal to engage with reason and truth. He believed that stupid people are easily led and controlled, making them ideal tools for those with malicious intent. Stupidity, in Bonhoeffer’s view, is characterized by a refusal to be persuaded by reason, facts, or evidence. When stupidity gains power, it becomes particularly dangerous because it can be used to justify harmful actions and policies.

In essence, Bonhoeffer’s theory suggests that while evil can be resisted, stupidity’s inherent resistance to reason and its susceptibility to manipulation make it a far greater threat to society. And, unfortunately, stupidity and ignorance were both the cause and the outcome of the 2024 election.

Low-propensity voters, who overwhelmingly chose Trump, were also least likely to consume valid information or follow the news. Instead they preferred to get it from social media, friends, and family. This is why the Trump campaign made social media propaganda a priority. Trump also carried voters without college educations by a wide margin in 2016, 2020, and 2024. All of this is to say that Trump won based on the feelings of the least educated, least informed people in the U.S.

However, this cult didn’t prove deadly to American democracy until it was combined with a populist demagogue supported by billionaires and right-wing Christian lawyers eager for theocracy. In other words, an organized fascist movement would never have taken root without evil people exploiting stupidity or without a society that reveres ignorance.

All three of these concepts—Chesterton’s fence, the Dunning-Kruger effect, and Bonhoeffer’s theory of stupidity—come together in the decision-making processes of the current administration. Take, for example, the destruction of HIV prevention efforts in Africa funded by USAID. Your average MAGA doesn’t understand why we have these programs for other countries, and so they kick the fence down because they dislike the idea of American money going to “shit-hole countries”, as Trump so indelicately put it. The people doing this had no experience in foreign policy or epidemiology, but they believe they knew best because they had lots of money or a tech background, meaning they must be smart.

As a result, hundreds of thousands will suffer and die horribly, as well as drive up medical costs as HIV and AIDS spread and ravage the continent. As America’s soft power and influence wanes around the world, nations are destabilized. You could try to explain this to them, along with the fact that it means more HIV and active cases of AIDS coming to the US, thus increasing costs here, but it would not matter. The person doing the explaining would be dismissed as the “elite” or educated, who simply cannot be trusted because they aren’t 100 percent on board with the MAGA vision. Thus, we see a modern example of evil coming from stupidity and arrogance, just as Bonhoeffer described.

Social Dominance Orientation

Social Dominance Orientation (SDO) is a personality trait that reflects an individual’s preference for hierarchical social structures and the dominance of some social groups over others. Individuals with high SDO tend to endorse group-based hierarchies and inequality, while those with low SDO favor more egalitarian social structures. SDO is considered a powerful predictor of intergroup attitudes and behaviors.

SDO is linked to more conservative beliefs and support for hierarchy-enhancing policies. Individuals with high SDO tend to exhibit more prejudice against stigmatized or disadvantaged social groups. SDO is a key component of Social Dominance Theory, which posits that social inequalities are maintained through group-based hierarchies and legitimizing myths, such as racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, etc. Research suggests that men tend to score higher on SDO than women.

People with high SDO are the base of the Republican Party, and especially MAGA. They believe they have a right to rule over others based on characteristics such as their race (white), sex (male), religion (Christian), gender identity (cisgender), wealth (rich), or proximity to the tech sector. This is fundamentally undemocratic and anti-egalitarian. But when they formed a coalition, it was sufficient to win a pair of elections and then enact an anti-democratic agenda to put themselves in power permanently.

The idea of SDO in American politics is nothing new, particularly the belief that one’s race or religion makes you superior. Politicians exploited this throughout American history. Lyndon Johnson observed that, “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” What is new is that the racists of the South have organized around religion and banded together with the wealthiest Americans to seize power, in much the same way the raving anti-Semites in 1930s’ Germany within the NSDAP forged an alliance with German industrialists.

What’s terrifying is that the one group that nearly all these people with high SDO scores agree should be at the bottom of society are transgender people. Even business leaders realize they need immigrants for cheap labor. But trans people are a group of people they all agree have no positive value to society, that no one would miss them if they all simply disappeared. Indeed, most of them regard their eradication as perhaps the most essential element to making America great again.

The collapse of democracy, combined with the emerging dictatorial apparatus being in violent agreement about who the least of the untermencsh are, should make any student of history extremely nervous.